Abstract
BACKGROUND Prospective studies of serum albumin concentration measurement as a low-cost predictor of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease progression are needed for individuals initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings. METHODS Serum albumin concentration was measured at ART initiation for 2145 adults in Tanzania who were enrolled in a trial examining the effect of multivitamins on HIV disease progression. Participants were prospectively followed for mortality, morbidity, and anthropometric outcomes at monthly visits (median follow-up duration, 21.2 months). Proportional hazard models were used to analyze mortality, morbidity, and nutritional outcomes, while generalized estimating equations were used to analyze CD4(+) T-cell counts. RESULTS Individuals with hypoalbuminemia (defined as a serum albumin concentration of <35 g/L) at ART initiation had a hazard of death that was 4.52 times (95% confidence interval, 3.37-6.07; P < .001) that of individuals with serum albumin concentrations of ≥ 35 g/L, after multivariate adjustment. Hypoalbuminemia was also independently associated with the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis (P < .001), severe anemia (P < .001), wasting (P = .002), and >10% weight loss (P = .012). Secondary analyses suggested that serum albumin concentrations of <38 g/L were associated with increased mortality and incident pulmonary tuberculosis. There was no association between serum albumin concentration and changes in CD4(+) T-cell counts (P = .121). CONCLUSIONS Serum albumin concentrations can identify adults initiating ART who are at high risk for mortality and selected morbidities. Future research is needed to identify and manage conditions that reduce the serum albumin concentration.
